The company said it expected unemployment to rise from its current rate of 3.9% to 4.6% by the end of 2024.Account icon An icon in the shape of a person's head and shoulders. recession at around 65%," it wrote, citing interest rate effects, risk of government shutdown and a weaker labor market as the causes. TD Securitiesįinancial service company TD Securities wrote in its latest forecast that it expects a "mild" recession for the U.S. "Rates are still high enough, and the economy is still fragile enough, that the risk of a recession remains." Hoenig predicted that this fragility could accelerate the rate of the Fed's cuts to combat this recession likelihood, with the idea being that lower interest rates can trigger more spending - and ultimately a healthier economy. "I think there is still a good risk of a recession, and so does the Fed," Hoenig told FOX Business this week. Thomas Hoenig, former president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank He added that this is a "normal part of the economy" and necessary for the central bank to reach its target inflation rate of 2% in the long run. "Going from 9% to 4%, that was always going to be easy," Dougherty said, predicting that the Fed's rate cuts will trigger a mild recession. Yes, we're heading toward a 2024 recession Charlie Dougherty, senior economist at Wells Fargoĭougherty predicted at a finance conference this week that while the worst of inflation is behind us, a recession still looms for the second half of 2024. outlook with the "recessionary conditions" in Europe, and while he acknowledged the possibility of "deep easing" as the Fed cuts rates later next year, he did not forecast a recession in the States. economy to "outperform consensus expectations and remain near potential growth rates in the first half of 2024." He went on to contrast U.S. In Morgan Stanley's "Thoughts on the Market" podcast this week, Lord said he expects the U.S. He added that Bank of America analysts foresee both one more rate hike in December and "a slowdown in the economy in the middle of next year." James Lord, global head of currency at Morgan Stanley "Our research team is the best in the business, and they have moved to the soft landing category," Moynihan said last week at a Reuters conference, referring to the Fed's plan to rise interest rates high enough to curb inflation but low enough to avoid a recession. "I see no imminent recession in the U.S.," Beneby told Bloomberg, adding that October's consumer price index data, which showed a year-over-year easing of inflation to 3.2% from 7.7% in October 2022, "confirms the disinflationary trend." Beneby predicted that the Fed will halt its rate hikes and that the economy will moderate, dampening the likelihood of more inflation and creating favorable market conditions. No, we're not heading for a 2024 recession Aneka Beneby, portfolio manager and director at Julius Baer Group While experts continue to butt heads on the chances of a recession next year, here's what some are saying. These high interest rates and their trickle-down effects, some have argued, are putting enough pressure on businesses and consumers to drive the economy into a recession in 2024. It paused increases in September but has remained unclear whether it will raise rates again before year's end. Concerns are focused mostly on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. Hawaii Alaska Florida South Carolina Georgia Alabama North Carolina Tennessee RI Rhode Island CT Connecticut MA Massachusetts Maine NH New Hampshire VT Vermont New York NJ New Jersey DE Delaware MD Maryland West Virginia Ohio Michigan Arizona Nevada Utah Colorado New Mexico South Dakota Iowa Indiana Illinois Minnesota Wisconsin Missouri Louisiana Virginia DC Washington DC Idaho California North Dakota Washington Oregon Montana Wyoming Nebraska Kansas Oklahoma Pennsylvania Kentucky Mississippi Arkansas Texas Get Started
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